Thursday, December 20, 2012

Irony Of Preparing For All Possible Outcomes

To my son Tommy,

Some people and some companies prepare for any outcome.  A prime example of this is the company that prints the Super Bowl Champ hats and stuff.  They spend (waste?) double their money and print sets for either team.  That way, the moment the game ends, they can supply the hats and shirts no matter who won.  The other set of clothing with the other team name, I am not sure but I guess they end up incinerated or trashed in some way.

There are tons of companies that do this.  From companies that make commercials to companies that make press releases to politicians to hedge funds etc etc.  Everything in duplicate for any eventuality.  One of the biggest companies for this is news organizations and newspapers.

I bet you that somewhere out there a newspaper is holding two headlines for their front page tomorrow or Satruday.  One says "The Mayans Were Wrong" and one says "The Mayans Were Right".  Can you see the irony here?  Only one of these headlines has any chance of making it to publish.  The "Wrong" headline has a chance to make it out because if the end of the world comes, it is going to put a big damper on publishing and distribution of the "Right" headline.

I guess there are times when preparing for all possible outcomes makes you look good.  It is actually an old magician trade secret.  If I make you pick from five shapes, and I hide five shapes in my clothing in various places, and I can then get you to divulge what your pick was, I can pull it out of my hat, or my pocket, or my sleeve, or my sock, depending on which shape you picked.  Most people are none the wiser that it didn't matter what their original choice was and amazed that the shape they picked was the only shape in the pocket of the magician.  But that is just the problem, it is all smoke and mirrors, a con.  I can spend $1000 a day to pick every combination of the pick 3 lottery and lose half my money each day for a week.  But then I can show someone the winning ticket everyday for a week and con them to buy my bogus "system" to always pick the winner.  Usually preparing for all possible outcomes cost you big money (or time or resources) and saves you little.  From time to time it is as useless as an end of the world headline.  So beware of those people who say they got your covered no matter what happens,  chances are they are wasting your time and money and are just selling you some useless "Mayans Were Right" headline article.

Sincerely with love from your dad,

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